As front-loading fades, goods exports growth will falter, but regional trade and AI-led demand will cushion the blow

Inflation remains above the BOJ's 2% target, driven by food and import costs, while price pressures have broadened

Wealth effects will support domestic demand, even as exports soften

The Pacific Islands are asserting themselves as tensions between China and the West cast a shadow over the region

Fiscal stimulus, export diversification and immigration will take centre stage in 2026

Democratic voices will rise. Regional supply chains will evolve, but ties will be preserved with both the US and China

We expect the next policy rate increase in the first quarter of 2026, when inflation and wage trends become clearer

Tensions emerge between fiscal expansion and monetary tightening, elevating bond yields and increasing yen volatility

Energy is moving to high-value sectors, but progress will be slow and exports will remain vital in the near term

Implementation of the policy measures announced by the chief executive will be the critical test of credibility

Stablecoin regulation bolsters Hong Kong’s regulatory clout, but compliance requirements will limit its appeal

Domestic demand will struggle to offset fading export-driven growth as front‑loading unwinds for the rest of 2025

Despite recent interventions, authorities have ample reserves to defend against currency pressures