Portfolio
Mainland capital inflows to Hong Kong will be formalised
Tighter controls will formalise mainland capital flows but weigh on property prices and consumption
Laos's energy diversification drive gathers pace
The government is reducing fuel-import dependence through renewables, EVs and regional power integration
Bank of Japan flags more rate increases ahead
The latest rate rise supports our policy normalisation forecast, but the tapering of JGB purchases will remain cautious
The Iran war will undermine Laos’s fragile recovery
Conflict-driven fuel and currency shocks will revive inflation, fiscal pressures and sovereign-risk concerns in Laos
Wealth effects will support consumption-driven growth
Strong growth reinforces Hong Kong’s role as a financial hub, but structural shifts will shape consumption patterns.
BOJ holds rate steady but tightening will continue
We expect the central bank to sanction a 25‑basis-point rate increase in its next meeting in June
Hong Kong to grow unevenly as divergence deepens
Economic growth increasingly benefits sectors that are able to draw on growing integration with the mainland
Japan’s bond volatility will constrain policy normalisation
The BOJ will face growing pressure from the competing demands of sticky inflation and debt-sustainability concerns
National congress signals policy continuity in Laos
Leadership continuity will maintain policy stability, but ambitious growth targets are unlikely to be met
Landmark conviction steers Hong Kong’s political trajectory
The verdict on Jimmy Lai reinforces a tighter political environment, while the business environment remains strong
Hong Kong fire renews questions over public accountability
The Tai Po fire exposes shrinking space for grass-roots mobilisation and renews debate over public accountability
Hong Kong Legco election signals deeper executive dominance
The election solidifies executive control, but low turn-out and arrests underscore public disengagement
Hong Kong's export growth continues but will slow in 2026
As front-loading fades, goods exports growth will falter, but regional trade and AI-led demand will cushion the blow
The risk of inflation remaining sticky in Japan is rising
Inflation remains above the BOJ's 2% target, driven by food and import costs, while price pressures have broadened
Renewed optimism drives Hong Kong's improved growth outlook
Wealth effects will support domestic demand, even as exports soften
What to watch in 2026: Oceania
The Pacific Islands are asserting themselves as tensions between China and the West cast a shadow over the region
What to watch in 2026: North-east Asia
Fiscal stimulus, export diversification and immigration will take centre stage in 2026
What to watch in 2026: ASEAN
Democratic voices will rise. Regional supply chains will evolve, but ties will be preserved with both the US and China
BOJ stays put but indicates more rate rises to come
We expect the next policy rate increase in the first quarter of 2026, when inflation and wage trends become clearer
Fiscal expansion will require a supportive monetary stance
Tensions emerge between fiscal expansion and monetary tightening, elevating bond yields and increasing yen volatility