We expect the central bank to sanction a 25‑basis-point rate increase in its next meeting in June

The BOJ will face growing pressure from the competing demands of sticky inflation and debt-sustainability concerns

Inflation remains above the BOJ's 2% target, driven by food and import costs, while price pressures have broadened

Fiscal stimulus, export diversification and immigration will take centre stage in 2026

We expect the next policy rate increase in the first quarter of 2026, when inflation and wage trends become clearer

Tensions emerge between fiscal expansion and monetary tightening, elevating bond yields and increasing yen volatility