Flew via Shenzhen to embrace the GBA spirit — smooth transit, but less convenient than flying from HKG. Fine for arrivals, best avoided for departures.

The economic value of trust

In developing countries I often hear "we want to be the Singapore of X." I can see why — rich, stable, multiethnic, less chaotic.

Training as an economist in the Nordics, we discussed trust's value often. You notice it most by its absence — extensive security teams, ATMs guarded by AK-47s. Higher fixed costs of doing business.

In Singapore/HK, some safety and trust is priced into interactions — credible consequences to breaking it mean you don't need a security force guarding your small business. China's social credit score formalises trust through mass surveillance instead.

Singapore's built a lot through top-down order, strict enforcement and a meritocratic bureaucracy. It works — investment flows, shops open, companies hire. But as people get richer, they have more to lose and demand more of a stake in decisions. Can a state that built wealth through control relinquish it?

"International city-states" in a fractured world

Both cities thrived on globalisation. Both now watch the world splinter into blocs. Conventional wisdom says they'd suffer. I think the opposite — as geopolitics intensifies, neutral places with reliable rule of law become more valuable, not less.

Much like Delos to the Roman Empire, or Rhodes's neutrality 2,000 years ago — Hong Kong is China's gateway, Singapore (with more autonomy) is SE Asia's. Less competing, more complementary.

Next stop: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 🇲🇾